The graph below tells a story. Cope threatened to get 20% of the vote, actually got seven percent and now has only 2% support.
The officials that remain in the party will of course argue that Cope should continue. Some of them draw Parliamentary salaries, others have office jobs with the party.
But the reality is that the South African voter, having taken a look at Jacob Zuma in office, has decided that he is not so bad after all. The moment when Zuma was facing a corruption trial while leading a divided ANC has passed. Cope’s leaders sensed his weakness and struck like a teddy bear with candy floss paws. Zuma got away and he has managed to re-invent himself as a champion of both change and continuity, that magic formula that few politicians master.
Cope meanwhile has mastered nothing, not even the dark art of office politics.
The future looks dismall for Cope and I would venture that it’s options are:
1. A total makeover which would position it distinct from the ANC as a party of the new – and politically ignored – black middle class: The re-orientation of the DP form an elitist party of white liberals with 1,7% of votes back in 1994 refers. The difference here would be that while white voter support is a capped demographic, the broader middle class will swell dramatically over the next ten years. Can Cope ride this tide to future electoral success? I don’t think so. It appears wedded to imitating the ANC’s “broad church” approach and lacks the leadership to drive a targetted strategic realignment.
2. If you can’t beat ‘em, join em. Returning to the ANC fold – somewhat sheepishly – would be a very uncomfortable move for a party that took such a strong “principled” stance against the ruling party. But it might make sense given the fact that the two parties are barely distinguishable on most policy matters. Would the Cope leadership do this? I don’t think they would be prepared to eat humble pie served in dump-truck portions.
3. Phone a friend. A flirtation between Cope and the DA has been going on since before the election. Perhaps this masks a real competition for the “anti-ANC” vote. Perhaps not. The two parties could do with each other, event though it is now clear that the DA dwarfs Cope when it comes to real support. If Cope is prepared to make the move to becoming a middle class party, it would do so on a platform close to that of the DA. But it would be branded a “sell-out” and lose some traction it has with middle class township voters.
In short, Cope no longer has the option of battling forward in a state of internal instability without a plan. Do it’s leaders have the ability to see how far down they have dragged the party down and the courage to make big decisions about its future. I doubt it.

The information in the table below was released by Ipsos Markinor yesterday.

Related posts:

1. Boesak resigns from Cope. Is it falling apart?
2. Election results: ANC gaining, DA dominant in Western Cape, Cope trailing behind
3. Election results: Is the trend your friend?
4. Cope loses …. whatever …. does anyone care?
5. Cope is the wolf at the ANC’s door