NEWS that South Africa’s economy has moved into the black is to be welcomed.
The statistics show that for the third quarter of this year, the economy notched up growth of 0.9% thanks to a big push from the manufacturing sector.
But being out of recession does not automatically mean that the good times will roll.
The economy has suffered a severe shock and there are more shocks to come.
Some of these include a persistent high interest rate environment, rising electricity costs and continued weak employment numbers.
But the most enduring effect of the economic shock of the downturn is a general parsimoniousness among consumers.
It is going to take some doing to get salary earners out of their spending hibernation and back into the malls and the property market.
The growth rate for this annus horribilus is likely to remain at a somewhat depressing minus two percent and everyone will continue to feel poorer for some months to come.
South Africa lagged the world with the arrival of the recession and it will lag the world when it comes to recovery.
There are other, more permanent changes that have been engineered by this downturn.
Industry is likely to be more ruthless in its attitude to hiring and payroll increases for some years to come.
Cost-containment will continue and new projects are going to have to fight for approval.
On the upside, we have what every other country in the world would kill for — the 2010 effect of the soccer World Cup.
Spending on infrastructure and the goodwill generated by the event are likely to help us out of the trough.
The wolf is no longer at the door, but the dark forest continues to loom in the middle distance.

Related posts:

1. ANC’s response to “global recession” – full text
2. The budget of a nation resigned to failure
3. Manuel must drive industrial policy
4. One year to 2010: SA’s biggest moment on the world stage
5. Trevor Manuel: World heading for second Great Depression