ONE of the greatest political comebacks of all time was formalised today as a 66 percent ANC Parliamentary majority voted Jacob Zuma into Parliament, paving the way for him to assume the highest office in the land on Saturday.
It is exactly three years, 11 months and nine days since then President Thabo Mbeki stood before the National Assembly to make the stunning announcement that Zuma had been fired as Deputy President following the conviction of his financial advisor Schabir Shaik on corruption charges.
A drawn and exhausted-looking Mbeki, perhaps sensing that he was sowing the seeds of his own destruction, delivered the speech slowly and without emotion.
Zuma, it seemed, had reached the end of the road.
But it was just the beginning of the most stunning political revival this country has ever seen.
Capitalising on Mbeki’s alienation of scores of key leaders and support-bases within the ruling ANC, Zuma crafted his journey back to the top.
He consolidated support among trade unionists and the left which had been treated with contempt by Mbeki, who had ignored their criticisms of economic policy direction and failed to consult them on decison making.
Powerful figures such as Cyril Ramaphosa, Matthews Phosa and Tokyo Sexwale, all of whom had been politically isolated by Mbeki, now gravitated towards Zuma.
Mbeki found himself without a credible successor who could gain traction in the party and his appointment of Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka to replace Zuma flopped spectacularly.
Then came Polokwane at the end of 2007 when Zuma mounted his successful coup via the ANC’s electoral procedures.
He won a majority of votes in the race for President after Mbeki decided that he would stand for a third term as ANC leader.
Mbeki and his supporters were shell-shocked. They were being jeered and shouted down by the party that had brought them to power and now they were all-but being shown the door.
Instead of accepting defeat and embracing the change in leadership, Mbeki adopted an uncommunicative and taciturn approach, further alienating himself from the party. He did not attend meetings of the leadership and appeared unable to build bridges with Zuma.
It was a matter of time before he was booted out of office by Zuma’s supporters.
Mbeki’s core supporters within the party withdrew and some left to form Cope, which fought a fraught election campaign against the ANC, garnering only seven percent of the vote.
The ANC under Zuma was weaker. It lost three percent of the national vote and was down in all provinces except for KwaZulu-Natal where Zuma appeared to garner ethnic support.
The KwaZulu-Natal vote diluted the losses across the country sufficiently for Zuma’s ANC to come within a hair’s breadth of a two-thirds majority, however.
Mbeki, much feared and admired for his Machiavellian political skills was, in the end, outwitted by a man wrongly stereotyped as his intellectual inferior.
Ray,the anc under zuma lost 4% not 3%.How in your analysis you left out china,libya and angola’s help in zuma’s revival?And what about the abuse of state organs and the sheer criminality committed in making sure the criminal charges are finally dropped?Do you consider this greatest political comeback?Puuuuuuuuuleeeeeeeeeeezzz
Yes Mr Editor truth hurts, some people wishes time could be reversed but no, Zuma is our President and it ends there.
What is wrong with Libya and Angola helping the ANC? Your Cope was also help by White Business and the west.
Spot on Ray. I know haters will come with their big mouths, false predictions, bitterness, misery, etc.
I can’t wait for saturday, where the young poet (8), will be telling it as it is about Jacob Zuma’s Polokwane victory over Thabo Mbeki.
That is a great come back for msholozi,we like it or not he is our president,even in the street of new york knows better than Tutu that comrade Zuma
is the president of RSA.i cant wait for Saturday
100% on the money Mr Editor, we have all witnessed the come back of the century, nicelly done, Oh and please haters you all can love JZ now its oficial.
When we talk about tried and tested leadership, we talk of Jacob Zuma, a man that stood the test of time but still stood firmly in what he believed in, he did not let go of the legacy the fore fathers of the ANC had worked so hard for. Blood was shared and famileis torn appart for us to be where we are today. I take my hat off and salute you Msholozi. i love you and support you 100%
Please see what I said in another one of Ray’s blogs. It makes for imteresting reading.
This kind of ‘analysis’ fascinates for a number of reasons. It is largely inaccurate unless you dig deep into the numbers. I have taken the liberty to analyse the numbers from the IEC website.
Except for 1994, the ANC has been increasing the number of votes it has.
1994 – 12.2 m
1999 – 10.6 m
2004 – 10.9 m
2009 – 11.7 m
So factually, it is hardly accurate to say that the ANC is losing support.
If we were to group the DP supporters with the NP supporters in 1994 as they appealed to a similar constituency and actually merged later here are the numbers.
1994 – NP DP – 4.2 m
1999 – NP DP – 2.6 m
2004 – DA NNP – 2.2 m
2009 – DA – 2.9 m
So, the truth is actually more complex and boring than the fiction we read. Interesting.
“I am tempted to say that almost every stage of my life has been a test of character, of strength, skill and later leadership. Almost all of these challenges have made me into a stronger person. I have never failed to learn from my mistakes, nor repeat them, nor pretend I never committed them in the first place. I am made of sterner stuff, even if I say so myself. I am tempted to say I know no man alive who has witnessed the struggles that I have survived. They may have come close but not what I have gone through, since I was born,’’ President Elect Jacob Zuma
You zuma arse-lickers are a disgraced lot.No one is denying that zuma is president,its Ray’s fantasies that zuma is a hero which is challenged.
Annanias Mathe is also regarded as a hero in his home town of Ivory Park cause he moved from renting a small plastic shack to owning a big one with state of the art furniture and audio appliance,endless parties and helping the less fortunate.That he raped people in their sleep and blow their brains to smitherins in the process of acquiring his loot was simply overlooked.Birds of the same feather indeed.
Nkosinathi,its good to see you’ve regain your bravery,how has the we-didnt-aim-for-two thirds vaccine helped?
Bonginkosi,the election of 94 has the same number of voters as this year’s one,moving from 12 mil to 11 mil is a loss to me,not a gain.Ask duma nkosi and all the other 14 MP’s who never made it back to parliament.And ple3ase get over the DA trouncing you in WC,the same so-called racist voters in WC gave you the WC in 2004 and you instead turned it into a tribal kingdom where everyne wanted to be a chief
Zumaniac, who says I voted for the ANC? The mind boggles.
I am just a number counter; I have a huge interest in numbers. I am also fascinated that people cannot count most of the time. It is an indictement on the education system.
As I have said before, both the ANC and the DA have not done justice to the Black people who live in the Western Cape.
Good Luck to Mr President Elect Msholozi Gedleyihlekisa. I wish him well whe he holds high office of the country, with the credit crunch this bad i urge everyone to rally behind him and give him chance and all necessary support. The Man has bees through a lot. All the best JZ sharp sharp
Bonginkosi, you are correct that both the ANC and the DA have screwed over ALL the Black citizens of the Western Cape over the last 15 years.But truth be told, the ANC has been the more culpable party during this period. What is happening in Cape Town today with squatters rioting and destroying infrastructure and private property can be laid fully at the door of ANC activists and supporters. They did exactly the same thing a few years back immediately after they lost Cape Town Municipality.
I have attacked the DA on many postings on these blogs but what the ANC is busy doing currently,is showing that they are the most intolerant bunch of hooligans in our political landscape. These are the exact same people who were guilty of the xenophobic attacks and murders of foreigners.
Don’t worry my friend, I hope Themba Godi, and one or two small fishes that we will manage to convince with all we have, will make the difference.
What now Bonginkosi,are you now ashamed to admit that you are counted among the millions of “social grant beneficiaries” who voted for anc?Its a fair assumption that you voted anc cause in most of your post,you’ve turned yourself into an “unpaid spin-doctor” for the anc.This time you went as far as to count with your fingers and toes to come up with figures that gives a positive picture for the anc and makes you look clever.
Nkosinathi-so you did wanted the 2/3 badly,isnt?Why keep on denying it?Things must be bad in khongolese,you now have to rely on bribing other MP’s to get the 2/3.I mean dude,you had 200 million 5oo millions for food parcels sabc tv and radio and a former goat-herder who started campaigning in 2004 and turned to dancing in desperation for votes and you still fall short?I would be sick if i was a member of anc as well.
Bonginkosi – Yes, but so have the other parties. What is relevant is the proportion of the vote that has been obtained. This has gone down.
So, Ray, are you saying that going from 4.2 m to 2.9 m i.e. losing 1.3 m votes is as significant as going from 12.2 m to 11.7 m votes i.e. losing 500 000 votes??? Sheesh, how’s the counting going? It is important for you guys to report the truth!!
Eli, I DO agree with you that the ANC does have the sourest of grapes in the Western Cape. If the ANC really cared for the people of the Western Cape, they shouldn’t have allowed an INCOMPETENT like Mcebisi Skwatsha to become the top ANC official!!! He doesn’t know how to speak to people; he doesn’t know how to execute ANYTHING!!! Ever head of ANY leader whom people are so disgruntled with that they want to stab to death??
They have no business doing what they are doing now. They must give Helen Zille a chance to succeed or fail on her own. It smells like a Skwatsha tactic to me.
Zumaniac, in general I don’t deal with insects like you. I squash them. Do not presume to know me, you imbecile.
I have never fail at mathematics in my life; I do not need to count with my fingers and toes. I am just showing the ‘commentators’ that truth in reporting is a crucial thing. If you don’t like the sound of the truth, go play with yourself in the corner and keep your sticky fingers away from the keyboard, you bloody imbecile.
Bonginkosi , a curious question…
Which person was the ANC suppose to put in the Western Cape? do you think that would have changed anything? and why ?
Seems like Ray decided not to censor replies to his missive this time around. Erm, you’ve said it correctly, this is one of the most spectacular comebacks. The problem with Thabo’s scheming is that he relied on yes men. How could you ever elevate Phumzile? A masterstroke would have been to take one of the Sisulus, that way he would have killed any groundswell of support. But then the Sisulus would object to being used that way. Thabo, brace for the final kill. JZ did not mention you in his remarks today, but you are destined for jail, mate.
Zodwa, you still don’t get it, do you?
The ANC lost the Western Cape because of their divisive behaviour. Ever since the days of Christmas Tinto, local branches have been clamouring to elect only African blacks to most/all official positions. The ANC’s NEC understood the danger of letting these “Africanists” take over the Western Cape and appointed Rasool as Premier to bring some counterweight to the Africanists. This annoyed them no end so they embarked on a continuous war of attrition to bad-mouth and marginalise Ebrahim Rasool. Rasool was no slouch either and in true ANC tradition, was very happy to push his Muslim cronies into key positions. He tried his best to prevent Zille from establishing a superior administration in Cape Town and went to great lengt5hs to try and embarrass her politically. He wasted hundreds of thousands of rands playing politics instead of focussing on delivering badly needed services.
The people of Cape Town just simply had enough of the Africanists trying to throw their weight around. They tried to bolster their campaign by appointing Reverend Nissen to head up their Provincial election campaign. Although Nissen enjoyed huge grassroots support during the struggle his image has been tarnished when he became a multi-millionaire overnight thanks to the generosity that the ANC bestows on their faithful cadres.
What I do know is that if the ANC had appointed anyone from Gauteng or anywhere else to run their campaign, they would have received an even bigger thrashing as the Capetonians are notoriously provincial.
The poor behaviour, violence and bullying tactics of ANC supporters lost them the election last year already. Julius Malema’s outbursts and verbal diarrhoea also cost them thousands of votes.
Bongs, you again.
Tell me something. In your legendary mathamatics ability, did you ever come across the concept of ‘percentages’.
You can diddle the numbers all you want but it is the percentages of the total vote that determines the ups or downs of the parties in this election. The ANC went down and will keep on going down. The ANC only attained 60 plus percent because of the KZN Zulu tribal vote, otherwise they would have been in the upper fifty’s if Zuma were a non-Zulu. The DA is cruising upwards and will continue to do so as Zille keeps notching up her string of successes.
i really do find all that everybody is saying interesting, and from what i have gathered all of you are intelligent,clearly articulate and need not i forget opinionated individuals, but in all that waas said i found it disappounting that nobody mentioned the most part of all these political occurences: the people..us..the ones who actually vote for these people in the hope that they will ensure that this country is worth living in..that we are proud to be South Africans. because right now as i stand none of thwm deserve to be in parliament, i dont even want to mention your war-songs singing-booty-shaking-with married women-on stage president who might i add has recently had a ridiculous amount of charges dropped against him after a trial that has cost the state millions! not only making a complete joke of our law..our constitution that is the envy of many countries..you go on about “the blood that was shed by our brothers for what we have today” and what do we have really when our leader cannot even respect the law? i have nothing against the man,trust me, i just think if he was really the man of intergrity he would have stepped down as president,to save our already tarnished reputation as a country, if he really does have the best interests of the country at heart..because, and i stand to be corrected, i am yet to hear of a president who is as disreputable as our beloved JZ…
Oh..please do excuse my gramatical errors..was using a faulty keyboard on campus…
Bonginkosi-only “unpaid spin-doctors” for anc resort to how many people voted for the anc instead of using the percentage system as required in a Proportional representation system which will clearly show that the percentage is down for this election.Trying to clever i see.
No need for your temper boet,it looks like you are not getting any,try visiting a “redlight district” in your area,its made for losers like you.
The truth of the matter, is that the editor is right, Zuma made a come back from being lets suppose 10 – 0 down to win the game 11 — 10 in his favour. let me tell you all something. you see most white people do not want to acknowledge that Crime, Unemployment, Racism, Entitlement V/S Dispossession and under- development are a legacy of Apartheid, by this i mean that’s where the blame lies. However the responsibility of all the Nasties above lies with the ruling party, hence i voted for the ANC. i feel that people need to accept that they have feelings about topics i.e Zuma or white people, but such feelings must then be measured against what we aim to archieve(non-racial SA), may be then, just may be, we can start to trust each other across the board resulting in the deracialisation of politics. white political leaders i.e Hellen Zille, should take care to make black people and white understand the difference between blame and resposibility when going forward.
Larry, here is the percentage breakdown that you are looking for and let the debate begin.
From 1994 to 2009, here is the lowdown.
ANC has lost 4.1% of the vote whilst the DA has lost 44.83% of the vote.
From 2004 to 2009, here is the lowdown.
ANC has gained 7.34% more voters than it had in 2004 whilst the DA has 31.83% more voters than it had in 2004.
Once again, this proves to me that the truth is a bit more complex than we all would like to acknowledge. It is definitely more complex than journalists are willing to do homework on.