It is almost unthinkable. The Eastern Cape region of the ANC, home to its stalwarts Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki and countless others, leaving the party for a new competitor.
This signals a sea-change in South African politics. If the breakaway party led by Mosiuoa Lekota should take the Eastern Cape and possibly the Northern Cape ANC structures with it, it will be off to a flying start.
But there is a downside to this development. The political map will start to be coloured more and more on ethnic lines. Imagine ANC-Zuma based in KwaZulu-Natal vs ANC-Lekota based in the Eastern Cape.
The Western Cape ANC, already deeply divided, might also fall to the Lekota camp.
Gauteng might become bitterly contested, with the Lekota camp holding the balance of power.
Elsewhere in the country, things are less clear, but the new party could make marginal inroads in the North West and in Limpopo.
By the end of this year, South Africa’s political map will have been substantially redrawn and an election battle to the death will be underway.
See also:
ANC faces its moment of truth: Could Zuma cost them the election?
Mosiuoa Lekota announces challenge to Zuma’s ANC: Transcript
Free advice to those planning an ANC splinter party: Love something
ANC war: Radebe’s letter to Lekota – full text
ANC war: Lekota’s letter to Gwede Mantashe – Full text
Related posts:
Its unthinkable neh, AK. Dont forget our arrangement. You may not blog anywhere on the Times Planet Blog from the day the new party is named, for two whole weeks. Then you can come back to Ray and apologise.
RAY – for pity sake. Lekota is spearheading the communication drive about the new party. He will not necessarily be THE LEADER thereof. You are over-dramatising. The Zulu of KZN will slot into the new party very neatly behind Buthalezi’s IFP alliance with the new entity. Firmly where they belong.
C’mon, give us some worthy foresight.
Ray, I am from the Eastern Cape but live in Johannesburg. Like many South Africans, I have a deep personal affection for the ANC and is the only political formation I have ever known. I however do not recognise the ANC of recent times, including the time Terror Lekota was Chairman of the ANC. I am revolted by it for the following reasons:
1. The policy of Cadre Deployment has been an absolute disaster for many years. That is partly why the Eastern Cape government is the serial underperformer it is today. These people want their political allies in key positions, people who can’t even wipe their own brows. This has seriously stunted service delivery.
2. When we gave the ANC a two thirds majority in 2004, it mistook this for a blank cheque to never consult the electorate again. With crass arrogance, the ANC has repeatedly shown a condescending attitude whenever private citizens who are not members show dissatisfaction with what its elected officials do.
3. Jacob Zuma’s legal troubles are all of his own making. It was proven by three different Courts of law that Schabir Shaik illegally gave money to Mr Zuma, money which Mr Zuma is yet to take the electorate into his confidence about why he took it, and why he thought he was entitled to it. We cannot be calling for political solutions for criminal matters. His political enemies may have used this evidence to nail him, but the evidence was there, not fabricated.
4. The in-fighting that we have seen in regions like OR Tambo, where the UDM-led KSD was sabotaged at every turn so that the electorate could turn against it. We know these things and are disgusted by them.
5. The removal of a sitting Head of State by 80 unelected individuals, among whom were convicted criminals, at a secret meeting the minutes of which will never see the light of day. The public and Parliament became mere spectators.
6. The role of the SACP in the ANC, where it is now seemingly accepted that the ANC must carry out the programmes of the SACP when this is not supposed to be. The Blade Nzimande’s of this world pontificate about what the ANC and government should do as if we elected the SACP. We did not.
7. The crass and opportunistic decision by 4000 delegates of a 600 000 member organisation to disband the Scorpions for spurious reasons, when the Unit served 47 million South Africans smacked of arrogance and disdain for the wishes of the majority of South Africans.
8. The irresponsible behaviour of its leaders like Gwede Mantashe, Julius Malema and Mathews Phosa among others, in attacking judges, calling them counter-revolutionaries and forces of darkness when nothing could be further from the truth.
9. The endemic nepotism, corruption and unashamed opportunism in abusing state resources through skewed tender processes so that political allies can benefit.
I can go on. This is not the ANC I voted for as an 18 year old in 1994. I do not recognise it. I don’t know it. I don’t want it. I am disgusted with it, and I want change, and I want it now!
A broad-based Convention of the People correctly needs to be convened, where the people of South Africa can elect credible leaders to take this country and its young democracy forward is a matter of urgency rather than expediency. We cannot wait when work needs to be done. That Terror Lekota and Mluleki George have put themselves out there for this initiative should not cloud our judgement on their role as latter-day ANC politicians in weakening our democracy. Perhaps they are repenting, let’s give them a chance.
Some of us have lost so much for this freedom, and we can’t let an organisation with a sense of undeserved entitlement ruin it for our children. The time is now. We must act.
i blame the ANC PEC members in the Eastern Cape by undermining the current NEC of the ANC. In anything that comes from the Luthuli House the E.C PEC always oppose for example the removal of the Premier nosimo because of lack of service delivery, accomodating the alliance partner in thier structures. They are the catalist of the digruntled members in the Eastern Cape. I appeal to the people of the Eastern Cape not to be fooled by the opportunist peaople like Lekota and Goerge. For Mluleki Goerge to stand next to Lekota whereas he knew that he is a member of the PEC is embarasing. E.C people know Goerge as divisive and apportunistic person in the Amatole region of the ANC. i appeal to Kwelita and Mhlahlo to resign from their portfolois after their name appear in the media. There will never be a service delivery if the same people who suppose to carry the policies of ANC are mentioned in the formulation of the break away party. Eastern Cape must not be used by people who want to retain thier wealth for personal purposes.
Viva ANC Viva
There will be a break away party and i am quite sure, justice will be served.
….and Zuma will get his day in court. Maybe more than a few days in prison.
HAHAA, NOW I AGREE WITH CDE VAVI THAT LEKOTA AND CROONIES ARE ONLY GRAND STANDING. THEY WANT ONLY PUBLICITY. CALL IN A MEETING AT LUTHULI HOUSE BUT NOT ARRIVE WHO KNOWS THTA THEY WILL ALSO NOT ARRIVE FOR THE COMMING CONVENTION.
HAHAA, you are either a rocket scientist or a putz. Now you know why everything is so easy to understand. Dof.
Ray you should really get someone to screen the comments that come in. Check out some of the political blogs on the nytimes.com. I was horrified and shocked to see people debating in a reasoned manner, in full sentences with correct spelling and grammatical structure. Great point though. Especially when one considers polarisation around tribal identity.
It comes as no suprise that the ANC is under threat in the Eastern Cape. This is the Province that is the heartland of the ANC yet it has become the back water of South Africa. It can be argued that this province was better off under the Matanzima and Sebe and even Oupa,s regimes despite the fact that they where proped up by the apartheid state.Agriculture is almost non-existent health and welfare is in a state of complete collapse. The unemployment rate is at it highest ever. Coruption is such a way of life that officials have even resorted to stealing funds from child feading schemes(The equivilent of Genocide).Imagine having to take control of this Province it may just be a poisend chalice
If the ruling party can abandon its supporters like this what does the future hold if this goverment continues unchallenged
It would be good news to loose the present ANC lot in the Eastern Cape. The likes of Stone Sizani and Friends are so corrupt that their departure would amount to a blessing in disguise for reviving the ANC. These people use the ANC as a kind of tender vendor or trading vehicle. In this province, ANC branches are hopelessly disorganised except perhaps before comferences when people are bussed in to elect cabalists as delegates. If I was Cde Jacob Zuma, I would encourage the Reactionists to split away, especially in the Eastern Cape. I would even consider raising funds fo them to set up a “successfull” reactinary Party modelled on the British Tories. I really wish this corrupt and cruel lot to breaks away, then we can rebuild the peoples’ movement without these corrupt Reactionists.
A split that the curtail two thirds majority is needed. the ANC must know that if it makes mistake someone will takeover. Thats Demcracy. or competition.
I have for a long time supported the ANC but not as a member, but with the talk of a split I am now more willing to even campaign for this new party not that it needs any campaigning because people here in the Eastern Cape are fed up with the Malema’s Vavi and thier leader zuma.
In truth a new party will be widely supported. Not only by those in the eastern cape, but by all the other provinces. However this party will gain support not because it is a home for people that are anti zuma and malema, but because it will understand that it is time that parties answer to the voter and not the other way around. any party that looks to further democracy by ensuring that in 2014 i can democraticaly vote for and impeach my president, should i chose to, will have my vote next year (2009)
The best thing that could happen to SA right now is a new party with the critical mass to counterbalance the ruling party’s near monopoly of the political marketplace. Then suddenly every politician will realise that mandates at the ballot box are not forever or a birthright of any party as currently obtains with some political arrogance that has been in display.
This country needs a new party. It is important that this party should cut across the race divide. We are encourage to see that the DA leader is prepared to discuss with the breakaway party. It would be strategically important to bring Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s IFP into the fold. This will ensure that eliminate the tribal argument that the arrogant and ill-disciplined new ANC leadership will advance. These leaders are under the illusion that Terror Lekota will be the new leader of the party, They have been fooled. We need to protect the real leaders until we have made the right advances. The battle lines have been drawn. The ANC NEC miscalculate by firing Mr Thabo Mbeki. They created the necessary momentum to form the new party. We intend to give that ordinary South African’s a choice. Do they want the corrupt Tony Yengeni, ignorant and disrepectful Julius Malema, corrupt Siphiwe Nyanda and autocratic Blade Ndizande or do they want self less leaders that are interested in the delivering service to the people ? We have to offer our people this choice. Only time will tell.
I can,t wait to vote for this new party, bring it on comrade. Terra, we can,t be
lead by poeple who can,t think properly who think they are Malema, Zuma, Mantashe, Vavi etc. my be its high time to realize that they are fools. I,m one of the members who’s leaving anc because of your foolish decisions & bulysm
Mike Mazomba,its not only people in ec who are disgusted with Zuma’s anc,malema,blade etc you’ll be surprised how far reaching it is.Very spot on Justice,all the idiots who are against the formation of new party have comically miscalculated it to an extend that they have already installed Terror as its president.Clearly they still yet to fully understand whats about to hit them,enough is enough…we need change and we need it right now.
Zuma’s ANC is now only for the purpose of keeping him out of the courts and jail. Yhis will be their election manifesto.
VIVA THE NEW PARTY
people let us be serious,we can not afford to be ruled by credit thugs,the rape suspects of young woman,the 500k thieves & liars & their idiots followers such as dopla.The voice of the people is gonna prevail,not the morons malema,vavi,nzimande,phosa,tokyo & their idiotsfollowers such as dopla,qangani
the ANC has been hijacked by power-hungry thugs like abo Malema, Nzimande, Vavi and cronies.Take a look at the composition f the ANC NEC, its full of people who have etheir transgressed or were linked to corruption.What they are doing now in PECs is totally unacceptable. Take the Northern cape for instance. These people have got nothing to offer us but are hell-bent at lining their pockets with the power of the rand. The least said about their boss, THE KANGAMAN the better. It is about time that a new party is formed, to counter this madness. go Lekota go, we are fully behind you.
AK-47 cum Pen
October 9, 2008 at 6:23 amRay, how much are you willing to bet? There will be no breakaway. Will you com to apologize to me when I win. I will apologize to you, should you win.