1. Mbeki wins vote = Gets third term as ANC president= Alliance plus populists split off to form left opposition = SA has proper political competion in parliament for the first time = Mbeki grooms sucessor for 2009, probably Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Weak president, but not a bad outcome.
2. Mbeki wins vote = Gets third term as ANC president = Alliance plus populists split off to form left opposition = SA has proper political competion in parliament for the first time = Mbeki amends constitution and stands for third term in 2009, ostensibly to keep Zuma threat at bay in national interest. Not good.
3. Zuma wins vote = Purges Mbeki crowd = Gets tried by Scorpions = Leads popular rebellion against criminal justice system = succeeds = Becomes 2009 president of country with no hope of fighting crime. Not good. Move meagre pension into offshore fund.
4. Zuma wins vote = Purges Mbeki crowd = Gets tried by Scorpions = Leads popular rebellion against criminal justice system = fails = Deputy Kgalema Motlanthe takes over = Motlanthe presidency in 2009. Not a bad outcome.

Related posts:

1. Who will govern? Mbeki or Zuma?
2. The next move in the Mbeki – Zuma chess match
3. Zuma wins ANC election – Now what?
4. Apocalypse or Nirvana? Four post-Mbeki scenarios
5. Zuma and Mbeki: A tale of two presidents